- 3 mins
The federal election in Canada is just days away, and for many of us, it’s time to think strategically about how to cast our votes. For most Conservatives, the choice is straightforward—they have one clear option. But for moderates and progressives, the decision is more complicated, especially as many are reconsidering their support for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. Concerns about Poilievre’s lack of a decarbonization plan, his pandering to a pro-Trump base, and his limited experience compared to figures like Mark Carney have left some undecided voters looking for alternatives. If you’re one of those voters, this is for you.
Political Strategy
My main message to progressives—those of us who align politically to the left—is simple: vote strategically. Canada’s First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) system means that the candidate with the most votes in a riding wins the seat, even if they don’t secure a majority. For example, if the NDP gets 30%, the Liberals get 30%, the Conservatives get 35%, and the remaining votes are split between the Bloc Québécois and the Greens, the Conservatives win the seat—even though 60% of the riding voted for progressive candidates. This is the reality of our electoral system, and it’s why strategic voting matters.
While I don’t want to pressure anyone to vote against their principles, I am urging you to think strategically. If the Liberal candidate is the strongest contender against the Conservative in your riding, vote Liberal. If the NDP candidate has a better chance, vote NDP. The goal is to ensure your vote counts—because it won’t matter if it’s wasted, and it certainly won’t matter if the Conservatives secure a majority.
If the Liberals and NDP need to form another coalition to prevent a Conservative government, so be it. But how do you know which candidate is the strongest contender in your riding? Here are some steps to help you decide:
1. Look at Historical Data
Check which party (NDP or Liberal) has historically performed better in your riding. The one with the stronger track record is likely the better strategic choice. This poll tracker from CBC provides a great overview.
2. Check Recent Polls
Look for riding-specific polls closer to the election to see which party is currently in second place. Keep in mind, though, that polling isn’t always accurate, so this strategy still carries some risks. Reliable resources include:
- 338Canada (338canada.com): Provides detailed riding-level projections and aggregates polling data to show which party is leading or competitive in each riding.
- Léger (leger360.com): Regularly releases national and regional polling data, giving you a sense of overall trends. (Go to the Trending Now section).
- Nanos Research (nanos.co): Offers frequent and reliable polling data, including regional breakdowns to help you understand which party is competitive in your area.
3. Coordinate with Others
If you’re part of a community or group that shares your goal, encourage others to vote strategically for the stronger challenger. Staunch Conservatives have been united for a while now, and progressives need to be just as coordinated.
Pragmatism Plus Principles
Weeks ago, it seemed like the Conservatives were poised to sweep the Liberals and secure a majority. But recent developments, like the tariff war, have given progressives a chance to push back—and we need to make it count. Yes, voting against your preferred party can feel like a betrayal of your ideals. Yes, it risks alienating smaller parties and propping up a two-party system. But we have to look at the bigger picture. Until we achieve electoral reform, we’re stuck with a system that forces us to choose between pragmatism and principles.
At the end of the day, we should always advocate for electoral reform—whether it’s ranked ballots or proportional representation—so that no one has to vote strategically in the future. But for now, progressives need to be pragmatic. We need to game the system while we’re still stuck with First-Past-the-Post. The stakes are too high to do otherwise.
