Progressives Are Missing the Point on Nenshi

With Avi Lewis winning the federal NDP leadership race, Naheed Nenshi weighed in. If you read his full response, the point is pretty straightforward: there are real differences between the federal and provincial NDP, especially in a province like Alberta. He emphasized the need to balance economic realities with funding public services, and made it clear that the primary political fight in Alberta is against the United Conservative Party, not the federal NDP.

The line that seems to have set people off was: “we believe in more pipelines and in reducing emissions.”

“Nenshi and the UCP said the same thing”

One comment argued that both the Alberta NDP and the UCP had essentially the same reaction to Avi Lewis. That’s just not accurate.

Yes, both criticized Lewis but for completely different reasons.

• Nenshi’s response was about pragmatism: Alberta’s economy is deeply tied to oil, and any transition has to account for workers and timelines.
• Danielle Smith, on the other hand, used Lewis as a way to attack the NDP as a whole, painting both Lewis and Nenshi as “eco-socialists” and trying to collapse any distinction between provincial and federal politics.

Those are not the same message. One is acknowledging political constraints; the other is using rhetoric to drag down the Alberta NDP.

The bigger issue here is strategic: when there’s a perceived lack of alignment between the federal NDP and provincial NDP, it gives the UCP an opening. You can absolutely have Avi’s bold environmental vision while allowing provinces like Alberta to tailor their messaging to local realities. However, if that nuance gets lost, it becomes easy ammunition for the UCP.

“This is centrism. Just follow the NDP in Manitoba”

Another criticism is that this kind of messaging is “centrist” and that Alberta should follow Manitoba’s example.

But Alberta isn’t Manitoba New Democratic Party territory. The political landscape is completely different. Manitoba’s NDP has had sustained electoral success in a context that doesn’t revolve around oil in the same way.

Acknowledging Alberta’s dependence on oil isn’t centrism—it’s reality. You can’t transition an economy overnight after decades of policy built around resource extraction. Even if the long-term goal is diversification or decarbonization, getting there requires sequencing, compromise, and public buy-in.

“The Alberta NDP is captured by big oil”

This comment came up a lot, and it’s honestly one of the weaker critiques.

Calling the Alberta NDP “captured by big oil” ignores what actually happened under Rachel Notley:

• They introduced a carbon tax
• They implemented an emissions cap on oil sands
• They brought in climate policies that previous conservative governments avoided

At the same time, they did not shut down the industry. They allowed continued development and supported pipelines.

That’s not “capture”. That’s a balancing approach. You can disagree with it, but it’s clearly not the same as the UCP’s pro-oil expansion policies and climate change denialism.

More importantly, Alberta’s entire economy has been structured around oil for decades. Expecting any government to implement drastic changes isn’t realistic.

This isn’t NYC

There’s also a reality check needed here. The federal NDP is not currently in a position of strength. Avi Lewis has a major challenge ahead, and success will depend on expanding support, not narrowing it.

This also isn’t a situation like Zohran Mamdani in New York City, where he built momentum against an established incumbent with favourable conditions and growing visibility. The federal NDP isn’t operating from a position of leverage right now. There’s no comparable surge, no clear path to immediate breakthrough (as one NDP MP crossed the floor to the liberals). That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but it does mean the timeline is longer, and the strategy has to reflect that reality.

Being bold matters, but so does building a coalition that can actually win. If the party alienates moderates or instills self-doubt in its own base, it risks ceding more ground to the Liberal Party of Canada.

I’m happy for Avi Lewis and his supporters, but I don’t see this changing the status quo right now. Many progressives agree with his ideas, but won’t risk a CPC win. It’s too much of a gamble. That could change if the conservative vote splits, but for now, I don’t see many former NDP voters coming back.